Evidence on Alcohol Retail Supply and Harm

Peer-reviewed studies from New Zealand and around the world show that higher alcohol outlet density and longer trading hours are strongly linked with binge drinking, crime, violence, and health inequities.

📍 New Zealand Evidence

• Connor et al. (2011): Alcohol outlet density, levels of drinking and harm in NZ
  National study found off-licence density is positively associated with binge drinking and harm, even after controlling for deprivation.

• Kypri et al. (2008): University student drinking in NZ
  Outlet density near campuses/residences linked to heavier student consumption and more alcohol-related problems.

• Huckle et al. (2008): Teenage drinking in Auckland
  Teens in “alcogenic” (high-density) neighbourhoods more likely to report higher drinking and drunkenness.

• Ayuka et al. (2014): Neighbourhood outlet availability in NZ
  Greater outlet availability associated with increased consumption at the individual level.

• Hobbs et al. (2020): Proximity and hazardous drinking/crime
  Living closer to alcohol outlets strongly linked with hazardous drinking and neighbourhood crime.

• Chambers et al. (2023): Modelling NZ interventions
  Simulated reductions in outlet density and trading hours, combined with tax/marketing controls, predicted major long-term health gains, especially for Māori.

🌍 International Evidence

• Popova et al. (2009): Systematic review
  Restricting trading hours and outlet density consistently associated with lower consumption and alcohol-related harms.

• Campbell et al. (2009): Community Guide review
  Review of 39 studies: higher outlet density = higher excessive drinking and harm; recommends zoning/licensing caps.

• Sherk & Stockwell (2018): Meta-analyses
  Found significant effects of outlet density and takeaway availability on consumption across multiple countries.

• Livingston (2008): Longitudinal Australia
  Changes in outlet density strongly associated with changes in assault rates, especially for packaged liquor.

• Livingston (2008): Spatial analysis
  Identified a non-linear density–assault relationship, supporting the case for outlet caps.

• Zhang et al. (2015): Atlanta, USA
  On-premise outlet density changes correlated with violent crime trends.

• Ahern et al. (2013): New York City
  Higher neighbourhood outlet density associated with binge drinking.

• Scribner et al. (1999): New Orleans
  Classic study linking outlet density directly with homicide rates.

• Horsefield et al. (2023): UK spatial study
  Proximity and availability of outlets correlated with violent crime rates.

🔎 Reviews on Crime & Violence Mechanisms

• Toomey et al. (2012): Review
  Strong evidence that higher outlet density predicts higher violent crime.

• Cunradi et al. (2011): Intimate partner violence
  Outlets in disadvantaged neighbourhoods increase risk of alcohol-related partner violence.

• Truong & Sturm (2007): LA, USA
  Outlet density linked with problem drinking and risky behaviours in urban settings.

🌐 Authoritative Guidance

• Community Preventive Services Task Force (US)
  Recommends zoning/licensing limits on outlet density as an evidence-based harm reduction strategy.

• WHO (2022 Policy Snapshot)
  Global guidance emphasising outlet density and trading hours as critical levers in reducing alcohol harm.

Key Takeaway

Across New Zealand and globally, the evidence is consistent:

• More alcohol outlets = more harm (drinking, violence, health inequities).

• Restricting density and trading hours reduces alcohol-related harm and improves equity.